She finished well going 7 furlongs last time and has the tactical speed to work out a good trip here. #3 Lisa’s Vision is another who could attract support, but I also have questions about her getting the distance. She can obviously win, but she’s going to take plenty of money going out for hot connections. However, I do get the feeling that added ground doesn’t really benefit her and do prefer her over slightly shorter trips than this. She ran very well in the Tepin against open company last year, and I thought both of her efforts at Belmont this summer were solid. #5 She’s a Mia seems like the horse to beat despite coming into this off three consecutive runner-up results. This New York-bred stakes event came up much tougher than the Stallion Series stakes run last month at Belmont, won by #6 Dream Central, so I want to focus on horses coming out of different races. Furthermore, Jorge Abreu is 3 for 6 (50%, $6.40 ROI) going from routes to sprints on turf at Saratoga over the past 5 years. She’s by versatile sire Fastnet Rock and is a smaller type that may appreciate sprinting. This is a drastic turnback, but I don’t mind it given her pedigree and physicality. And last time she just seemed to lack the stamina to finish after chasing an honest pace going farther. I thought that she was left with a little too much to do by her rider two back. She hasn’t really progressed at all since her encouraging debut going a mile at Aqueduct this spring. I’m going in a different direction with #9 Libretto. However, I’m not sure that the cutback in distance suits her as well as that foe. Green has a right to do better after finishing just over a length behind Hey There last time. She’s earned competitive speed figures, but I haven’t loved any of her races and think she’s catching a pretty salty field for her return from the layoff. I prefer her to #2 Crowding Out, who could also take money going out for Chad Brown. I don’t have a major knock against her, other than the fact that she figures to be a short price now that her best form is exposed. Yet she had previously been successful going shorter at Churchill Downs and she possesses the tactical speed to be prominent from the outset on this cutback. She earned her best career speed figure – a TimeformUS 109 – when just getting nailed on the wire going 7 furlongs last time. #3 Hey There is the horse to beat as she turns back in distance for Brad Cox.
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